WHO GAINS? – AT 11:21 A.M. ET:  The debate has begun over who gains in November from the vacancy on the Supreme Court.  The Court, in the last half century, due to decisions involving segregation, school prayer, and abortion, has become a major political issue.  From the superb John Fund, at Fox: 

So who will benefit most from the debate over Justice Kennedy’s retirement?

“This is every Democrat candidate’s worst nightmare, as it changes the game on turnout,” GOP pollster Chris Wilson told the Washington Examiner. “It doesn’t just close the enthusiasm gap, it injects rocket fuel into the evangelical base that helped Trump win swing states.”

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin took a different approach, claiming that the injection of a court vacancy into the midterm campaign will only fuel anti-Trump fervor.

“The stakes for Democratic voters in this election already were extremely high, and the Supreme Court vacancy supercharges all of that,” Garin told the Washington Post.

Some more neutral observers believe that while both sides will use the court battle to boost turnout, the advantage will go to the Republicans. The key races that will determine who controls the Senate next year will largely be fought in 10 states that Donald Trump carried in 2016 but that currently have Democratic incumbents up for re-election.

“More Democrats voting in already liberal New York over the Supreme Court doesn’t change anything,” Democratic pollster Doug Schoen told me.

But a Supreme Court vacancy may energize turnout among evangelical Christians and other social conservative voters. In 2016, fully 81 percent of self-identified white, evangelical Christians told exit pollsters they voted for Trump – while just 16 percent went for Clinton. Trump’s huge margin with these voters exceeded the victory margins they gave GOP presidential candidates George W. Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney.

Trump was able to pile up such big margins in part because he told evangelical voters that the 2016 election would decide the direction of the Supreme Court. He went so far as to release a list of his possible nominees before the election to reassure conservatives he would pick a reliable conservative and to reinforce how importantly he viewed the decision to fill any vacancy.

The effort paid off.

COMMENT:  I'm guessing that it will pay off again.  To the right, the Supreme Court is the protector of the Constitution.  To the left, it's the home of Roe v. Wade and race-based admissions policies.  I think the right has the more popular argument. 

Some news outlets reported this morning that the president wants to name a replacement for Anthony Kennedy by July 9th, which would be a week from Monday.  So get set for a major story that will dominate that week.

June 29, 2018